Where is the next mainstream encrypted narrative? Search for "supernatural phenomena"

DeFi2.0, Web3 business, Web3 social networking and DeSci are expected to become potential narratives in the next cycle.

By Matti

Compiled by: aidiaojp eth,Foresight News

When I told myself that I could lie flat in the bear market, I found that someone had started to look for signs that the next bull market would open. As history shows, the bear market is always brewing the next bull market.

Everyone is like a heroic journey in the encryption cycle. It will take some time from "returning to the origin" to "starting a new round of adventure".

Some people are always preparing for the next adventure, turning every possible narrative into a supernatural help. However, supernatural help does not often appear in real life, or even feels that it will never come. The rising interest rate, inflation and economic war

Before we imagine the appearance of supernatural phenomena, we will feel that the bear market is extremely long, as if it will never end. We began to become less sensitive to what happened in the market, and the sharp decline of the currency price again and again was treated like a daily trifle.

On the journey to the next bull market, we will encounter false prophets. Some of them begin to talk about strange things called fundamentals, which they have always avoided in the past super bull market.

Ironically, we laugh at fundamentals in a bull market, but we expect the market to recognize them in a bear market. The recent Ethereum merger is a warning.

The importance of Ethereum merger needs no more words, but those who want to be rescued quickly willbitter disappointment。 Because it will take time for such an important time to be widely recognized by the market.

The biggest disappointment comes from those who definitely believe that there is still a new low. This is the time when most people lose all hope. Fear began to turn into disappointment, and then began to drowsy and listless. People get bored and feel like they have nowhere to go.

Most people who have lost interest do not know that some people are working hard to study, and then the quantitative change has reached qualitative change, and they have received supernatural assistance in the next cycle. In order not to let us become dull in the coming dull period, let us explore the potential narrative that was once considered supernatural help.

Macro factors

Cryptocurrency as a risk asset, the real supernatural help is the money printing machine of the Federal Reserve. Of course, this opportunity applies to all assets. If the Federal Reserve reduces the amount of money issued in the next year or two, new speculation will not easily occur.

Of course, the new shiny narrative is very important, and it is an important part of the rapid development of the industry. Until there are enough shiny new things, encrypted narrative can get rid of macro constraints and achieve explosive growth. However, when everyone is trapped in a bear market and unable to extricate themselves, and the technology lacks innovation, the encryption market will be doubly impacted.

Bitcoin repeats this idea over and over again. Bitcoin is also changing its narrative. Since the market crash in 2018, cryptocurrency has been crying out in unison that "institutions are coming".

As a technology, Bitcoin has not changed at all. But Bitcoin believers are missionaries who skillfully use global macroeconomic events to promote the value of a real currency and constantly modify it in this process. From payment system to digital gold and inflation hedging, toCredible neutral bonds

Another reliable neutral asset is the upgraded Ethereum, which is mature enough to compete with Bitcoin in terms of macro narrative. In addition, Ethereum provides "real" benefits.

As far as the current macro environment is concerned, there is a view that we are experiencing a macro economic transformation triggered by geopolitics, which is a new interpretation of the conflict between eastern and western civilizations.

When local politics is adjusting, it is useless to understand the central bank from the bottom up. This is not a time of peace, butWar economy, which means that liquidity will be more injected into the construction of actual facilities and meet actual needs, rather than the risk asset encryption market.

This approach is based on the premise that this round of inflation is not demand driven, but structural (supply driven), and will not be eased in a short period of time. Globalization has ended, and transnational trade will become fragmented.

As the foreign currency assets of the Russian Central Bank were frozen, many countries began to considerAssets held other than USDTo reduce the potential risks of international trade.

I expect cryptocurrency will try to narrate some of these geopolitical events. Some are even about to become reality, because a credible neutral currency is fundamentally a strong narrative proposition. Can the crypto kingdom dominated by Ethereum and Bitcoin defend its sovereignty and profit from the war as Switzerland did during World War II?

New Shiny Narrative

In the past, macro narrative usually took a long time to generate enough consensus. Only when technological innovation promoted the realization of narrative, the market reaction would accelerate. Because we should not rely on the long macro narrative, but should explore the potential technology implementation in the future.

The bull market in 2021 starts from the DeFi summer in 2020, and the speculative feedback cycle of borrowing and lending becomes the main catalyst of the bull market. NFT and GameFi appeared immediately, but what are the technology triggers that are expected to break through in the future?

The arrival of DeFi2.0

Although we have all heard of DeFi2.0, we have not really achieved it at present. I expect DeFi2.0 will be released in the next year or two. Here are my thoughts on DeFi2.0:

  • More sustainable benefits

  • More complex tools on the chain, including the ability to build complex structured products

  • More KYC

  • Products related to the real economy

  • New stable currency experiment (this may not be the algorithm stable currency)

  • Pay close attention to Olympus DAO and firmly believe in the mission of cryptocurrency reserve currency independent of fiat currency

At the beginning of the COVID-19-19 crisis in March 2020, I began to look for the application of defi in the real world. With the gradual collapse of transnational travel and global trade, countries around the world will gradually localize the economic cycle. andLocal loan dAppMaybe it will become the encryption expansion method provided by the real economy, and some people will even propose aWIR Frame encryption model

Combining DeFi with physical business will make DeFi a more sustainable product and a real Web3 native solution, rather than just a speculative tool.

Web3 Business

A typical case of Web3 business is GameFi. For example, StepN is actually realizing user growth with its great early success. But now it is facing the challenge of transforming the Ponzi scheme of tokens into a sustainable development led by users.

Virtual assets, practical NFT and other projects purchased in the game can enable us to turn to decentralized business. At present, I haven't seen any successful prototypes, but we need to let users spend their money on the blockchain instead of gas fees or speculation.

The decentralized business model is also related to the monetization of content production. Given the natural capital driven effect of cryptocurrency, community owned and operated media companies may be an interesting proposal.

Although people are skeptical about DAO, they really need to accept the same high failure rate as startups. However, DAO may still become an effective management organization for content production and monetization. To achieve that, we need to have applications like the combination of Discord and Kickstarter, and we need a smooth user experience.

It seems that blockchain games are the easiest way for Web3 business to succeed. When the items in the game are really owned by people, it will help to build the transplantation projects in different games.

Web3 Social

Web3 social networking is a hot topic, and we have also written an articleIn depth articles。 Of course, some critics argue that it is unnecessary to "socialize" on the blockchain. However, we believe that Web3 social will try to separate the social graph from the platform, so that users can have sovereignty in the digital field and can be transplanted in various social places.

If Web3 social only applies to encrypted communities, it may fail. It is not enough for Web3 social networking to provide motivation for ideological change. The key is to introduce new business models, and new social tools must be intuitive and easy to use.

Returning to the advantages of frictionless capital formation of cryptocurrency, the next generation of social software may emerge around the construction mode of crowdfunding and community governance. At present, social media has become the mainstream way of content realization. Web3 solutions can expand the possibilities for creators and their audiences.

This is why if NFT is intrinsically linked to future social media, the next major social application will be encryption driven. However, there is still doubt whether there will be an internal connection between the two.

Decentralized Science DeSci

according tofuture.comDescribed, DeSci has two broader trends. In short, in addition to the systematic problems described in the introduction, the current problems in academia are summarized as follows:

  • After institutionalization, the academic community has created a bureaucratic system. They usually support published papers and journals more to optimize their internal reputation, which has promoted innovation in history.

  • Innovation funds in academia are centralized, corrupt, and unproductive, different from entrepreneurial funds

  • Knowledge is closed source and locked in the payment wall, so the data is concentrated in the hands of a few major publishers

The research on alleviating specific problems through online community funding has a good prospect. Demand driven innovation. I see many people sharing tips about health problems online, especially when modern medicine has no real answers.

It sounds exciting to let them have funds to develop drugs to cure diseases through the funding of online communities, but it seems absurd to say that Reddit will become a crowdfunding platform to support scientific discussion, research and development.

Atomic world

The "atomic world" here refers to the real relationship between cryptocurrency and productive economy.

In the bear market in 2018, we realized that applications on the blockchain were not so revolutionary. At that time, the technology we mastered was not mature enough, but now it may be time to re-examine some of our ideas at that time.

Energy Web still exists to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy. It tries to achieve something that ordinary people can also benefit from, although I think it is a long-term goal. When we talk about the energy crisis, optimizing the power grid and decentralizing the energy market are areas worthy of attention.

The potential synergies may focus on providing cryptocurrency loan services to local enterprises, or they may be physical companies or products created in the form of DAO, all of which are still in the undeveloped stage.

In a bear market, there is no real low fruit, and the meme currency rarely rises. Builders should dig deeper for inspiration. Perhaps it is time to expand cryptocurrency to real life and try to solve the practical problems of ordinary consumers and producers.

Summary

Although the bear market is tough, we need not be too pessimistic. Many founders are also studying decentralized computing and other niche market solutions. Of course, there may be other narratives to bring us into the future. In any case, we will look for new innovations and narratives to re conceive the future.